Iran: "I had waited thirty years for this. Now I feel relieved."

Two Basiji motorcyles are burning. People have learnt how to do it fast. They lay the motorcycle on its side, spilling the gasoline and lighting it on fire. We climb up a pedestrian bridge and watch. People shout from the bridge, 'Down with Khamenei' and 'your aura is gone for good'. A Basiji is caught: He soon disappears under the crowd beating him. As if in a Roman coliseum those on the bridge shout, 'Beat him up!' I shout with them before coming to my senses. What is with me? He staggers away as a group of ten people kick and punch him.

At Gisha, there's a similar scene. Again the people have the whole crossing in their control and you can hear the uproar and horns. Motorcycles are burning in smoke. But I'm suddenly stunned. I see a red object, which later proves to be a man, about 50, his head covered with blood, crouching, people passing him by as if he was a garbage can. Then comes a guy with a long stick who wants to beat up the already beaten Basiji. People gather and stop him. He's furious, 'Why should I not? They beat tiny girls! They beat everyone! Bastard!'

I shout at him, 'But we're not beasts! We're not like them!' Somebody takes the Basiji away as people curse him. I think, 'But the bastard deserves it. To come out of your house in the morning, just to beat up people you don't even know.' I don't recognize myself and my feelings anymore.

You can get in any car to go back home. People trust one another now. The woman in the back seat sitting next to me says, 'It's no longer about Mousavi or election results. We have suffered for thirty years. We didn't live a life.' An old man next to her offers me fresh bread. They tell jokes about the political figures and laugh out loud. They feel victorious. 'I had waited thirty years for this. Now I feel relieved.'

link: Letter from Tehran: To live or to just be alive, that's the question

The Strength of Iranian Women

Anne Applebaum writes:

In the United States, the most America-centric commentators have somberly attributed the strength of recent demonstrations to the election of Barack Obama. Others want to give credit to the democracy rhetoric of the Bush administration. Still others want to call this a "Twitter revolution" or a "Facebook revolution," as if zippy new technology alone had inspired the protests. But the truth is that the high turnout has been the result of many years of organizational work, carried out by small groups of civil rights activists and above all women's groups, working largely unnoticed and without much outside help.

Since 2006, the One Million Signatures Campaign has been circulating a petition, online and in print, that calls for an end to laws that discriminate against women and the enactment of laws that provide equal rights for women in marriage, equal rights to divorce, equal inheritance rights and equal testimony rights for men and women in court. Though based outside the country, the Abdorrahman Boroumand Foundation, founded by a pair of sisters, translates and publishes online fundamental human rights documents; it maintains an online database of the names of thousands of victims of the Islamic Republic as well. In the past decade, Iranian women have participated in student strikes as well as teachers' strikes, and in organizations of Bahai, Christian and other religious groups whose members are deemed "heretics" by the regime.

Not Obama, not Bush and not Twitter, in other words, but years of work and effort lie behind the public display of defiance and, in particular, the number of women on the streets -- and their presence matters. Their presence could strike the deepest blow against the regime. For at the heart of the ideology of the Islamic Republic is its claim to divine inspiration: Its leadership is legitimate, as is its harsh repression of women, because God has decreed that it is so. The outright rejection of this creed by tens of thousands of women, not just over the past weekend but over the past decade, has to weaken the Islamic Republic's claim to invincibility, in Iran and across the Middle East. The regime's political elite knows this well: It is no accident that the two main challengers to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the Iranian presidential campaign promised to repeal some of the laws that discriminate against women, and it is no accident that the leading challenger, Mir Hossein Mousavi, used his wife, a political scientist and former university chancellor, in his campaign appearances and posters.

The Iranian clerics know that women pose a profound threat to their authority, too: As the activist Ladan Boroumand has written, the regime would not bother to brutally repress dissidents unless it feared them deeply. Nobody would have murdered a peaceful, unarmed young woman in blue jeans -- unless her mere presence on the street presented a dire threat.

link: Anne Applebaum - Women May Pose the Deepest Threat to Iran's Regime - washingtonpost.com

Iran's Guardian Council: "No Possibility" the Election will Be Annulled

Ramin Mostaghim and Borzou Daragahi report:

Iran's Guardian Council today ruled out the possibility of nullifying the country's disputed presidential election that returned hard-liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power, saying it could find no evidence of any "major" irregularities, according to a report carried by the website of the state-owned English-language Press TV satellite news channel.

"Fortunately, in the recent presidential election we found no witness of major fraud or breach in the election," said Abbas-Ali Kadkhodai, the council's spokesman, according to the report. "Therefore, there is no possibility of an annulment taking place."

link: Iran authorities say disputed vote count will stand - Los Angeles Times

Latest on SC Governor Sanford: Missing or Not?

Josh Marshall reports:

Sanford's last known location was near Atlanta late last week. A mobile telephone tower there picked up a signal from his phone, according to a source familiar with the situation.

If the governor were a civilian, I would say that this kind of data on the whereabouts of his cell phone strongly suggested that an active investigation into his whereabouts was underway. But of course, he's not a civilian. He's a governor. Possibly the whereabouts of his cell phone are routinely tracked. And if not, the state of South Carolina could probably easily pull those records. Still, the fact that this information is in the mix at least suggests that people in the state government have already made some efforts to track down just where the governor is.

Put it all together and this is starting to sound a lot like the governor is genuinely missing.

He goes hiking, either alone or in a small group. He says he'll be away and perhaps not in regular contact. But reading between the lines it seems his people did not expect he'd be totally out of contact for several days. There's some evidence suggesting some efforts may already have been made to track him down. Now it's the beginning of the next week. And there's still no word from him.

I don't think there's much to be gained through more speculation. And there's a lot that's still murky about this. But based on what we're being told, if Sanford weren't the governor of a state but the CEO of a local company, this sounds like the point at which people would be starting to worry about if something had happened to him.

link: Sanford Story Takes More Serious Turn | TPM

The End of an Ideology Based on Divine Authority?

Fareed Zakaria: One of the first things that strikes me is we are watching the fall of Islamic theocracy.

CNN: Do you mean you think the regime will fall?

Zakaria: No, I don't mean the Iranian regime will fall soon. It may -- I certainly hope it will -- but repressive regimes can stick around for a long time. I mean that this is the end of the ideology that lay at the basis of the Iranian regime. The regime's founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, laid out his special interpretation of political Islam in a series of lectures in 1970. In this interpretation of Shia Islam, Islamic jurists had divinely ordained powers to rule as guardians of the society, supreme arbiters not only on matters of morality but politics as well. When Khomeini established the Islamic Republic of Iran, this idea was at its heart. Last week, that ideology suffered a fatal wound.

CNN: How so?

Zakaria: When the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a "divine assessment," he was indicating it was divinely sanctioned. But no one bought it. He was forced to accept the need for an inquiry into the election. The Guardian Council, Iran's supreme constitutional body, met with the candidates and promised to investigate and perhaps recount some votes. Khamenei has subsequently hardened his position but that is now irrelevant. Something very important has been laid bare in Iran today --- legitimacy does not flow from divine authority but from popular support.

link: Zakaria: 'Fatal wound' inflicted on Iranian regime's ideology - CNN.com

Iran: Women and the Basij

9:25 pm: From a Tehran resident today: I cannot sleep and not write this.

Today in Haft-e Tir, there were so many members of basij that they outnumbered the demonstrators 3 or 4 to 1. They were less focused on women. This must be related to the murder of poor Neda. And this was also why whenever they got hold of a man, women would surround them and shout don’t beat him, don’t beat and they would turn and anxiously say we didn’t beat him. It was astonishing. They explained; they talked.

But they didn’t allow us to congregate; they kept telling us to walk and the crowd walked quietly for 2 hours in the circle (meydaan) and spontaneously gathered in whichever area they were not present. About 2000 of us were walking around the circle and only shouting Allah-o Akbar until they were forced to disperse us with tear and pepper gases. I thought people’s patience and persistence was great, although there were also many bad scenes and I cried.

They arrested a whole bus load of people. There were many intelligence folks in the crowd too. They would point to a person and the basijis would arrest that person. There was no one from Sepah and the police was obviously sympathetic to the crowd. I swear some of the Basijis were only 14 or 15, or at least what they looked like to me. On the other hand, women are playing an amazing role in the streets; both in terms of numbers and effectiveness.

link: niacINsight

Prayer for Neda: "The Regular City Police Joined In"

The excellent Roger Cohen writes from Iran:

I sat among the mourners in late afternoon, under the plane trees, as candles burned and a prayer was said. The square seemed an oasis. I asked a young woman if she was scared.

“Yes,” she said. “I’m scared that all the blood shed for this cause may be wasted.” The cause, of course, is the annulment of Iran’s fraudulent election and, beyond that, freedom. The freedom not to live in a state that slams shut the doors of the mosque next to Nilofar Square because Neda, as a protester, was denied a proper service.

As the sound of the prayer rose, the regular city police joined in. This was too much for the Basij militia, the regime’s plainclothes shock troops, who arrived on motorbikes and, wielding sticks, broke up the gathering of about 60 people.

link: Op-Ed Columnist - Roger Cohen - Life and Death in Tehran - Editorial - NYTimes.com

The Bleating of Copper

The Bleating of Copper

by Amjad Nasser
translated from the Arabic by Khaled Mattawa

Fathers
told us about raids
and deaths avenged,
but they never told us about martyrs.
The bells of the flock
were everything;
the bleating of copper
that never ceased its ringing.
And the rivers and oases
that slipped from under
the hooves of their horses at night!
Night and horses—
is this what history is all about?

Amjad Nasser is the author of many collections of poetry. His collected poems (in Arabic) were published in 2002. He was born in 1955 in al-Turra, Jordan, and now lives in London.

Khaled Mattawa was born in Benghazi, Libya and has translated many Arabic poets. His most recent collection of poems is Amorisco (Ausable Press).

link: Guernica / The Bleating of Copper

IranTwitter: Rafsanjani Controls Much of the Army

please remember always - Sea of Green is voice of people of Iran - we will resist and defend with our life - #Iranelection Allah Akbar 28 minutes ago from web

one of our ppl is injured badly by Militia - this was unprovoked attack - #Iranelection 31 minutes ago from web

Again we say thank you to our friends who are helping from outside - you know who you are - Sea of Green - #Iranelection 33 minutes ago from web

now it is very late here and we must rest - tomorrow will another long day #Iranelection 34 minutes ago from web

Tehran hospital caualty levels very high - hospital source - #Iranelection 35 minutes ago from web

Tonight there was sound of guns in several parts of Tehran - #Iranelection - inc Shahrak Gharb, Tehran Pars and Gheytarieh 36 minutes ago from web

In Tehran there is unofficial martial law at night - #Iranelection 37 minutes ago from web

Rafsanjani controls much of the army - until now he is silent - after trigger event he will act #Iranelection 38 minutes ago from web

link: persiankiwi (persiankiwi) on Twitter

Image of Neda

South Carolina Governor Missing

Eric Kleefeld writes:

First lady Jenny Sanford told The Associated Press today her husband has been gone for several days and she doesn't know where he is.

The governor's personal and state phones have been turned off and he has not responded to phone and text message since Thursday, a source said.

Jenny Sanford said she was not concerned.

She said the governor said he needed time away from their children to write something.

link: Mark Sanford Is Missing | TPMDC

Shah's Son Speaks on Iran Protest

The Iranian regime, [Reza Pahlavi] said, was a "sinking Titanic" that might not survive the demands for democracy and human rights reverberating through the country.

Citing anecdotes from people inside the Iranian establishment, Pahlavi said he had heard that security forces have begun to distance themselves from the regime.

"It has already started," he said, citing reports that members of the security forces have gone home after their shifts ended and changed into plain clothes to join the protesters.

"Many, many elements within the security forces, within the Revolutionary Guard, are showing discontent," Pahlavi said. "There is an amazing reflection that is happening. ... This is a movement that has blown out of proportion."

Pahlavi praised the statements and tone of President Obama, saying that any outside attempt to interfere in Iran's internal affairs "will give the tyrants the excuse they need to paper over their own differences and target every man struggling for freedom as a foreign agent."

But he said there was a difference between interfering in a country's sovereign affairs and standing for principles of human rights and democracy.

"We welcome that. This is effective. It is important," he said. "This is precisely what Iranians at home demand world leaders, particularly someone like President Obama, who after all his entire message of hope and change and affirmative action ... was a big inspiration to many."

But, he added, Obama and other world leaders must be prepared to change their tactics if the violence against protesters gets much worse.

link: Fighting tears, shah's son calls crisis a 'moment of truth' - CNN.com

Tehran: "Massive, Massive, Massive Police Presence"

An Iranian woman who lives in Tehran said there was a heavy police and security presence.

"There is a massive, massive, massive police presence," she told the AP in Cairo by telephone, speaking on condition of anonymity because she was worried about government reprisals. "Their presence was really intimidating."

"What you see is nothing (compared) to what is really happening," said the woman. "People are very, very despondent. There is an air of sadness around."

At night, she added, cries of "Allahu akbar!" or "God is great!" echo through Tehran, saying that was "the only way that they are able to express themselves."

The government has intensified a crackdown on independent media — expelling a BBC correspondent, suspending the Dubai-based network Al-Arabiya and detaining at least two local journalists for U.S. magazines.

Britain, accused by Iran of fomenting post-election unrest, said Monday it was evacuating the families of diplomats and other officials based in Iran — the first country to do so.

link: The Associated Press: Riot police use tear gas to halt protest in Iran

Special Court for Arrested Iranians

6:29 PM ET -- Special court for arrested protesters. "Iran's judiciary will set up a special court to try protesters arrested in the surge of civil unrest since the disputed reelection of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a judiciary official said on state television, as the government continues its crackdown aimed at crushing its greatest domestic challenge in 30 years."

link: Iran Updates (VIDEO): Live-Blogging The Uprising

Neda's Grave?

Unconfirmed:

NEDA sleep here #Neda on Twitpic

Mousavi and the Clerics

Enduring America reports:

Take 2 — Reliable activists on Twitter indicate that Presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi was in Qom on Monday talking to “senior clerics”.

Add 2 — Within the last two hours, the Assocation of Combatant Clerics, associated with former President Khatami, has issued a statement in support of Mousavi.

Do you get the 4 of a significant upsurge in the movement against the Iranian Government?

I’m not sure, but these developments would explain why the opposition leadership was relatively quiet and unseen today, as scattered demonstrations took place in Tehran. It would also explain why, in the last few hours, Presidential candidate Karroubi has put pressure on the Guardian Council to annul the vote. And I think it would explain why the Mousavi and Karroubi groups have called for a rally on Thursday as a memorial to those who have lost their lives in the demonstrations (including “Neda”, whose own memorial service was blocked by the Iranian authorities).

If this is true, this is a significant challenge. But its problem may be that, having given 72 hours’ notice of the rally, it gives the Government and its agencies time to organise their response, which will no doubt be to block any mass gathering.

link: Iran: 2+2 = A Breakthrough? (Mousavi and the Clerics) | Enduring America

Message from Tehran: Obama Not "Caught in the Traps of the Mollahs"

naicINsight reports:

3:15 pm: Message from an ordinary Tehrani – This message was forwarded to an Iran-focused listserv in the hopes that it would find its way to officials in the American government.

Dear friend, if you have any contacts within the American Administration, please send them this message on behalf of us, ordinary Iranians in Iran (whose interests and concerns are very different from those of the exiled Iranians in the United States and in Europe who do not yet understand the mentality here and who have been cut off from the Iranian society for too long). Tell your contacts in the Administration that their point of view regarding Iran is by far the best position that an American Government has ever taken. We appreciate this and thank the President.

During the last two or three decades not one American president had “understood” Iran. All of them got caught in the traps of the mollahs, despite themselves having to play the bad cop .. but this time the intelligent president has decided not to join in their game, bravo.

It is normal that he is criticized vividly by most of the Los Angeles Iranians (and by most Republicans): since a long time they have been asking for just one thing : that America attack Iran and change the regime so that they get their possessions and their former jobs and privileges back, without wanting to know what today’s young Iranian wants here and now. It makes me think of the Cubans in Florida … they don’t consider the interests of their country but only what is due to them.

link: niacINsight

Iran: No Foreign Intervention

niacINsight reports:

The indispensible Stephen Kinzer–one of the best sources anywhere on Iran–has discovered pictures of Muhammad Mossadeq starting to pop up among the crowds.

Carrying a picture of Mossadeq today means two things: “We want democracy” and “No foreign intervention”. These demands fit together in the minds of most Iranians. Desperate as they are for the political freedom their parents and grandparents enjoyed in the early 1950s, they have no illusion that foreigners can bring it to them. In fact, foreign intervention has brought them nothing but misery.

America’s moral authority in Iran is all but non-existent. To the idea that the US should jump into the Tehran fray and help bring democracy to Iran, many Iranians would roll their eyes and say: “We had a democracy here until you came in and crushed it!”

President Barack Obama seems to grasp this reality.

link: niacINsight

Video from Iran 6/22/2009

YouTube - Tehran - 7tir Sq - June 22

Twitter Tug Of War: Iran

Twitspam has published a list of “fake Iran election Tweeters,” whose fraudulent Twitter feeds spread disinformation, and try to incite violence. “Buyer beware,” The New York Times warns:

Nothing on Twitter has been verified. While users can learn from experience to trust a certain Twitter account, it is still a matter of trust. And just as Twitter has helped get out first-hand reports from Tehran, it has also spread inaccurate information, perhaps even disinformation.

Other Tweeters work for the “good guys,” calling for their on-line comrades to Tweet false reports of protesters’ locations, in order to send Iranian cops on wild-goose chases.

link: Perils of Iran’s Web-Driven Revolution | Danger Room | Wired.com

Iran: Syria Weighs In With A Predictable Opinion

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem on Monday criticised the street protests that have rocked Tehran over the disputed presidential election, saying the Iran regime will not fall.

"The Iranian people have exercised their right to vote," he said of the June 12 poll that returned President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad power in what official results said was a landslide.

"Protecting Iranian lives cannot be expressed through the incitement to protest," Muallem told a news conference attended by visiting Dutch Foreign Minister Maxime Verhagen.

"Anyone betting on the fall of the Iranian regime will be a loser," Muallem said.

link: AFP: Iran regime will not fall: Syrian FM

Iran: Statistical Downfall?

Nate Silver writes:

I've generally tended to take the position that while the people running Iran are a bunch of reactionary thugs, they're at least a fairly intelligent bunch of reactionary thugs.

After this revelation on Iranian Press TV, however, I'm not so certain:

Iran's Guardian Council has admitted that the number of votes collected in 50 cities surpass the number of those eligible to cast ballot in those areas.

The council's Spokesman Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei, who was speaking on the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) Channel 2 on Sunday, made the remarks in response to complaints filed by Mohsen Rezaei -- a defeated candidate in the June 12 Presidential election.

"Statistics provided by Mohsen Rezaei in which he claims more than 100% of those eligible have cast their ballot in 170 cities are not accurate -- the incident has happened in only 50 cities," Kadkhodaei said.

The spokesman, however, said that although the vote tally affected by such an irregularity is over 3 million, "it has yet to be determined whether the amount is decisive in the election results," reported Khabaronline.

For all the complex series of statistics that have been run on Iran's election, it's the simplest that might prove to be the regime's downfall.

link: FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Worst. Damage Control. Ever.

Twitter From Iran: Hacked

Tehran is now alive again with the sound of the people - Allah Akbar - Death to the Dictator - #Iranelection less than 10 seconds ago from web

We have been offline for several hours becaus today we were hacked - #Iranelection Sea of Green 1 minute ago from web

The Combatant Clerics Group has strongly supported Mir Hossein Mousavi - Qom - Today #Iranelection 5 minutes ago from web

Mousavi has today had a meeting with several high rank clerics from Qom - #Iranelection 7 minutes ago from web

today we were hacked by Gov agents but now after many hours we are back in control #Iranelection 12 minutes ago from web

link: persiankiwi (persiankiwi) on Twitter

Iran: From a Telephone Inteview on CNN

Mohammad: Let me tell you something. For about three decades our nation has been humiliated and insulted by this regime. Now Iranians are united again one more time after 1979 Revolution. We are a peaceful nation. We don’t hate anybody. We want to be an active member of the international community. We don’t want to be isolated… We don’t deny the Holocaust. We do accept Israel’s rights. And actually, we want — we want severe reform on this structure. This structure is not going to be tolerated by the majority of Iranians. We need severe reform, as much as possible.

Roberts: Interesting perspective this morning from Mohammad, a student demonstrator there in Tehran.

Mohammad: Excuse me, sir. I have a message for the international community. Would you please let me tell it? Roberts: Yes, go ahead.

Mohammad: Americans, European Union, international community, this government is not definitely — is definitely not elected by the majority of Iranians. So it’s illegal. Do not recognize it. Stop trading with them. Impose much more sanctions against them. My message…to the international community, especially I’m addressing President Obama directly – how can a government that doesn’t recognize its people’s rights and represses them brutally and mercilessly have nuclear activities? This government is a huge threat to global peace. Will a wise man give a sharp dagger to an insane person? We need your help international community. Don’t leave us alone.

Chetry: Mohammad, what do you think the international community should do besides sanctions? Mohammad: Actually, this regime is really dependent on importing gasoline. More than 85% of Iran’s gasoline is imported from foreign countries. I think international communities must sanction exporting gasoline to Iran and that might shut down the government.

link: Iranian protester pleads for U.S., world to intervene – amFIX - CNN.com Blogs

What Will The Regime Do With Mousavi?

Juan Cole writes:

Reformist presidential aspirant Mir Hosain Mousavi called Monday morning for another round of big street protests by his supporters against the attempt of the regime to steal the election for hard liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps has replied by warning it will crush any further street protests with a "revolutionary confrontation."

FT points out that given Mousavi's continued challenge to Khamenei's decisions, the regime may well arrest him, feeling the step is necessary to remove his freedom of action. Of course, Iranian Shiites all know the pitfalls of creating martyrs, since the religion is all about resisting the tyrants in history who made the martyrs. An arrest of Mousavi would either push Iran over the brink or would indeed consolidate power for the time being in the hands of the hard liners.

link: Informed Comment: Mousavi, Defiant, Calls for More Rallies

Losing the Proxy War: Iran

Perhaps the strangest thing of all, given how diverse and active and vocal the proxy server farmers have been, is that by and large, it isn't working. The rate with which new proxies are being created has slumped over the last few days. It's getting harder and harder to propagate new proxies to the people who need them, as the government consolidates its hold on the filtering mechanisms. Any new proxy addresses that are posted to Twitter, or emailed, will be blocked very quickly.

People we talk to inside Iran say that almost no proxies are usable any more. Freegate, a Chinese anti-censorship application that makes use of networks of open proxies, has proven popular in Iran. But this week, it, too, has been experiencing problems. Many popular applications, like Yahoo! Messenger, have stopped working. The authorities are said to be using power interruptions as a cyberweapon, causing brief outages during rallies that cause computers to reboot, just as people are trying to upload images and video. The net result, as Arbor's excellent analysis shows, has been a drastic reduction in inbound traffic on filtered ports since the election.

If there's a lesson here for the rest of the world, perhaps it's this: Install a few proxy instances on machines you control. Learn how to lock them down properly. Swap them with your friends overseas who live in places where the Internet is fragile. Set up your tunnels and test them. And don't wait until the tanks are in the streets to figure this out, because by that point, you may have already lost the proxy war.

link: The Proxy Fight for Iranian Democracy - Renesys Blog

Uighurs in Limbo: No Palau

Several Guantánamo detainees from western China are uninterested in moving to Palau, the country that agreed to resettle them after their upcoming release, because it is located too close to their homeland, the top Palauan presidential spokesman said today.

The Uighurs from China's far western region of Xinjiang, are considered separatists by Chinese authorities. The US refused to send them back to China because of concerns the men would be immediately arrested.

Palau consented to President Barack Obama's request to take the Turkic Muslims as part of plans to close the Guantánamo Bay detention centre in Cuba. The men were captured in Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2001, and the Pentagon determined last year that they were not "enemy combatants" but the men have been stuck in legal limbo since.

Only one Uighur expressed high interest in Palau, Tmetuchl said. He was so excited that he ignored the call to prayer during his interview with Palauan officials and instead wanted to know more about the country.

"If we had said 'Let's go', he would've jumped on the plane," he said. "It sounds like he just wanted out [of Guantánamo Bay]. And if out meant Palau, that's what he wanted."

link: Several Uighur detainees object to Palau resettlement | World news | guardian.co.uk

Iran: The General

12:42 pm: A possible split in the IRGC?

According to unconfirmed reports in Balatarin [Farsi] , Gen. Ali Fazli, the head of revolutionary guards in Tehran, has been arrested after refusing to execute Khamenei’s order of using force against demonstrators in Tehran. He is a war veteran who lost an eye during the Iran-Iraq war. (h/t Boushveg)

link: niacINsight

Iran: The Middle Distance

Hussein Dakroub in Beirut and Hamid Ahmed in Baghdad:

"Instability inside Iran will minimize the state's capacity to project power in the region and beyond, a practice in which Iran has been very successful recently," said Amr Hamzawy, a Middle East expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based think tank. . . .

Besides Iraq, Hezbollah would be the group most affected by who wins Iran's confrontation — the militant wing led by Khamenei and Ahmadinejad or the camp of reformist-minded politicians and clerics to which Mousavi belongs.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah shares with Khamenei and Ahmadinejad a deeply rooted hatred for the United States and a firm belief that years of peace talks with Israel have come to nothing and only armed struggle would restore Palestinian rights.

"Your re-election represents a great hope to all the oppressed people, holy warriors and resistance fighters," Nasrallah wrote to Ahmadinejad two days after the June 12 vote.

If the regime rides out the crisis over the election, experts say a much more ideologically entrenched Iran could emerge and pursue regional goals more forcefully, including seeking to broaden its footprint in neighboring Iraq and resisting compromises over the scope of its nuclear program.

But if it bows to demands by Mousavi for a new election — which now appears unlikely — the regime would be seen as weakened by Arab states but perhaps less of a regional rival.

Iran has in the past few years taken advantage of the waning powers of such regional heavyweights as Saudi Arabia and Egypt to gain leverage in the Middle East. Its effort was helped by a surge of anti-American sentiments among Arabs after the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the war on terror waged by former U.S. President George W. Bush.

However, continuing unrest would distract Iran from regional affairs, leaving Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas unable to count on Tehran's largesse and vulnerable in the face of domestic rivals.

link: The Associated Press: Unrest could hinder Tehran's regional goals

Iran: A Terrible Beauty is Born

Roger Cohen writes:

Whatever happens now, all is changed utterly in Iran. Opacity, a force of the Islamic Republic, has yielded to a riveting transparency in which one side confronts another. The online youth of Iran will not be reconciled to a regime that touts global “ethics” and “justice” while trampling on them at home.

I received this from an anonymous Iranian student: “I will participate in the demonstrations tomorrow. Maybe they will turn violent. Maybe I will be one of the people who is going to be killed. I’m listening to all my favorite music. I even want to dance to a few songs. I always wanted to have very narrow eyebrows. Yes, maybe I will go to the salon before I go tomorrow!”

And she concludes: “I wrote these random sentences for the next generation so that they know we were not just emotional under peer pressure. So they know that we did everything we could to create a better future for them. So they know that our ancestors surrendered to Arabs and Mogols but did not surrender to despotism. This note is dedicated to tomorrow’s children.”

I bow my head to the youth of Iran, the youth that is open-eyed, bold and far stronger and more numerous than the near-beardless vigilantes.

link: Op-Ed Columnist - Iran’s Children of Tomorrow - NYTimes.com

"Not a Good Sign"

Laura Secor writes:

More than a hundred Iranian reformists have been arrested in the turmoil following Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s hastily declared victory in the June 12th Presidential election. Among them is Saeed Hajjarian, who had been a political consultant to former President Mohammad Khatami. In 2000, Hajjarian was shot in the face by an assassin who was widely believed to have been in the employ of the intelligence ministry. Hajjarian had once been a high official in the intelligence apparatus, and he was suspected of being the source of stories in a reformist newspaper tying the ministry to the grisly murders of dissidents. He survived the shooting, but was left partially paralyzed and is dependent on the constant care of doctors and family. He speaks with difficulty, and his office in the reformist-party headquarters contains a hospital bed. His doctor says that keeping him in detention without proper medical care could endanger his life.

It is not a good sign when a government feels the need to imprison even the dissidents it has already shot.

link: Protest Vote: Comment: The New Yorker

Rafsanjani 2

It seems that in a quick poll of the Guardian Counsel by two of their own (Ahmad Khatami and Mohammad Yazdi) some of the members of Qom's rank and file have refused to recognize Ahmadinejad's victory in the elections, which itself is giving rise to speculation that up to 40 members of the Guardian Counsel and authoirties of the Khobregan [I don't know how that has been translated in English] have signed a letter demanding a nullification of the last election results. Rafsanjani is said to have that letter in his possession.

On the other hand, it is said that Ali Khamenei has been relocated from his residence either for security reasons or for treatment. It has even been said that the reason that Rafsanjani's daughter 'Faezeh' was arrested from amongst the demonstrators was to pressure Rafsanjani due to the behind the scenes role that he has been playing.

It is being said that the reason for the coup d'etat is Khamenei's growing health problems and the severity of his lung cancer. His son Mojtaba wanted to keep the role of Supreme Leader in the family and needed the presidential power to be sympathetic and close to home on the issue.

link: The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

Attempt to Gather in Memory of Neda Resisted by Riot Police

The Associated Press is among several news media reporting that:

Eyewitnesses say riot police are attacking hundreds of protesters with tear gas, and firing live bullets in the air to disperse a rally in central Tehran.

CNN says the protesters are trying to gather in memory of Neda.

link: NPR: Reports From Tehran: More Protests, Police Crackdowns

More Twitter from Iran

road blocks controlling movement of people from North to South Tehran to stop ppl joining Sea of Green #Iranelection about 4 hours ago from web

Tehran Majlis - Parliment - under heavy guard and road blocks with armed militia - #Iranelection about 4 hours ago from web

today we have hidden cameras in good locations ready to give u film - #Iranelection about 5 hours ago from web

all roads and alley ways around Interior Ministry closed with concrete blocs and guards - #Iranelection about 5 hours ago from web

situation in Tehran very tense today - many roadblocks - #Iranelection about 5 hours ago from web

Etemad Melli newspaper (pro Karroubi) offices attacked by militia - #Iranelection confirmed about 5 hours ago from web

UNCONFIRMED - several of the pro-democracy leaders in prison have started HUNGER STRIKE - #Iranelection RT RT about 5 hours ago from web

TODAY 4pm - Haft Tir Sq - Meydan 7 Tir - Tehran - candle vigil - sitting on floor - in memory of our martyrs - #Iranelection RT RT RT about 6 hours ago from web

link: persiankiwi (persiankiwi) on Twitter

Rafsanjani

9:38 am: Rafsanjani ally calls for formation of a “political bloc” to undermine the “illegitimate” government.

A political party affiliated with Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, the former president and key member of the Iranian regime, on Sunday called on Mir-Hossein Moussavi, the opposition leader, to form a “political bloc” that would pursue a long-term campaign to undermine the “illegitimate” government.

Hossein Marashi, spokesman for the Kargozaran, stayed clear of directly challenging the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but told the Financial Times in a telephone interview that Mr Moussavi was now the leader of an opposition that was not without options.

Three of the relatives were released but Mr Rafsanjani’s most outspoken daughter, Faezeh, was still being interrogated on Sunday. Fars news agency insisted the detentions had been made to safeguard the women’s safety.

link: niacINsight

Iran Updates from niacINsight

Iran Updates – June 22, 2009

10:42 am: Lara Setrakian of ABC news sends an update on the demonstration we mentioned below via twitter: “People are trying to gather in 7 Tir square, but being dispersed before they can gather momentum. Many many Basijis. People btwn 1000-2000. they’re preventing others from joining. As soon as they gather somewhere they attack, so they run away & regroup” (h/t the indefatigable Nico)

10:38 am: BBC Persian is reporting [Farsi] that Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs is considering the expulsion of some European ambassadors in response to their positions on recent events. Hasan Ghashghavi, the speaker of Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Monday that the behavior and statements by these countries and appropriate actions are being examined and evaluated.

Ghashghavi has accused the European countries and the United States of supporting the “agitators” instead of inviting the people of Iran to participate in democratic processes and emphasizing the rule of law.

link: niacINsight

Shortcomings of American Coverage of Iran

from The Economist blog:

IT WAS embarrassing to watch yesterday morning as the networks trotted out the same old politicians and pundits to dissect America's reaction to the events in Iran. The same people who were so wrong about Iraq and whose opinions seem to reliably fall within one or the other party's talking points. Surely these were the people we needed to hear from in order to better grasp the situation in Iran. A situation that, apparently, must be seen through an American lens in order to be seen at all. The Iranian people? Inspired by Barack Obama (or George Bush or Ronald Reagan) they have fought the good fight, but they will certainly succeed or fail based on America's willingness to lead. Mr Obama's next statement will be crucial.

Rubbish. I propose a new rule: No American shall be allowed to comment, write a column, or blog on the situation in Iran without actually referring to the situation inside Iran and, specifically, the Iranian people, whose opinions on most matters are rather accessible. An addendum to this rule: No column shall begin with the words, "What the Iranian people need right now..."

link: On Iran | Democracy in America | Economist.com

Iran: Irregularities at the Counting House

Ahmadinejad claims to have gathered 13m votes more than all three conservative candidates combined managed in 2005. If true, this would be the biggest increase in a vote since the birth of the Islamic Republic, and conveniently bigger than that achieved by the reformist winner in 1997, Mohammad Khatami. This is odd. The major reformist organisations boycotted the 2005 poll, which Ahmadinejad won, and so the re-entry of these voters might be expected to boost the reformist challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi. Not so, apparently.

link: Magic numbers | Ali Ansari and Thomas Rintoul | Comment is free | The Guardian

Iran: The Zimbabwe Strategy

Tony Karon writes:

The Zimbabwe strategy would involve first escalating repression to get the opposition off the streets, drawing enough blood to make many Iranians think twice about putting themselves at great physical risk in pursuit of an objective that begins to look beyond reach. And once the opposition is intimidated and demoralised, Mr Ahmadinejad might be prodded to offer concessions in the form of some kind of national unity government, albeit on his own terms. Right now, there’s no sign that the opposition would accept such a deal, but Mr Khamenei may be betting that suppressing the protest movement can split the opposition, isolating the more reformist elements from pragmatic conservatives like Mr Mousavi who didn’t back the previous reform presidency of Mohammed Khatami, but who have been alarmed by Mr Ahmadinejad’s militancy.

It’s unlikely, in fact, that Mr Mousavi had evolved a strategy for the situation as it has unfolded. Like Mr Khamenei, he is improvising. The Supreme Leader has now forced him to choose between becoming an enemy of the state, or settling for a secondary role and perhaps, after the crisis has passed, a more moderate and inclusive Mr Ahmadinejad.

link: How the ‘Mugabe option’ figures in Khamenei’s strategy - The National Newspaper

"Colourful" Revolutions

Robert Fisk writes:

In the aftermath of the Ahmadinejad "success" at the polls, his supporters were handing out leaflets condemning the secular revolutions of Eastern Europe, and their content says much about the anxieties of Iran's clerical leadership. One of them was entitled: "The system of trying to topple an Islamic Republic in a 'velvet revolution'." It then described how it believes Poland, Czechoslovakia, Ukraine and other nations won their freedom.

"'Velvet' or 'colourful' revolutions... are methods of exchanging power for social unrest. Colourful and 'velvet' revolutions occurred in post-communist societies of central and Eastern Europe and central Asia. Colourful revolutions have always been initiated during an election and its methods are as follows:

"1. Complete despair in the attitude of people when they are certain to lose an election...

"2. Choosing one particular colour which is selected solely for the Western media to identify (for their readers or viewers)." Mousavi used green as his campaign colour and his supporters still wear this colour on wristbands, scarves and bandannas.

"3) Announcing that there has been advance cheating before an election and repeating it non-stop afterwards... allowing exaggeration by the Western media, especially in the US.

"4) Writing letters to officials in the government, claiming vote-rigging in the election. It's interesting to note that in all such 'colourful' projects – for example, in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan – the Western-backed movements have warned of fraud before elections by writing to the incumbent governments. In Islamic Iran, these letters had already been written to the Supreme Leader."

link: Robert Fisk: Battle for the Islamic Republic - Robert Fisk, Commentators - The Independent

"The Basic Requirement for Being the Supreme Leader is To Be Just"

Neil MacFarquhar writes:

In his criticism on Sunday, Mr. Moussavi avoided any direct assault against the supreme leader, instead saying the government cheated on the results of the June 12 presidential election.

“Every Muslim understands that anyone who would lie in this way is not just,” said Mr. Kadivar, the Duke professor, who was a senior adviser to the previous reformist president, Mohammad Khatami. “The basic requirement for being the supreme leader is to be just. Justice is a key point in Islamic values.”

link: News Analysis - In Iran, Both Sides Seek to Carry Islam’s Banner - NYTimes.com

Whose "Just Islamic Republic"

Neir MacFarquhar writes:

In the battle to control Iran’s streets, both the government and the opposition are deploying religious symbols and parables to portray themselves as pursing the ideal of a just Islamic state.

That struggle could prove the main fulcrum in the battle for the hearts and minds of most ordinary Iranians, because the Islamic Revolution, since its inception, has painted itself as battling evil. If the government fails the test of being just, not least by using excessive violence against its citizens, it risks letting the opposition wrap itself in the mantle of Islamic virtue.

“If either the reformists or the conservatives can make reference to Islamic values in a way that the majority of citizens understand, they will win,” said Mohsen Kadivar, a senior Iranian religious scholar teaching Islamic studies at Duke University.

link: News Analysis - In Iran, Both Sides Seek to Carry Islam’s Banner - NYTimes.com

"Do Not Be Scared. We Are All Together."

At Monday's rally in the square, one witness said a male protester in his 20s was chased into an alley by two members of the pro-government Basij militia. A group of protesters chased the Basijis away and then the crowd could be heard chanting "Do not be scared. We are all together."

link: Hundreds protest in Iran, despite warning - CNN.com