Grim Twitter Bulletins from Iran

we must go - dont know when we can get internet - they take 1 of us, they will torture and get names - now we must move fast - #Iranelection about 11 hours ago from web

Everybody is under arrest & cant move - Mousavi - Karroubi even rumour Khatami is in house guard - #Iranelection - about 11 hours ago from web

they pull away the dead into trucks - like factory - no human can do this - we beg Allah for save us - #Iranelection about 11 hours ago from web

Lalezar Sq is same as Baharestan - unbelevable - ppls murdered everywhere - #Iranelection about 12 hours ago from web

they catch ppl with mobile - so many killed today - so many injured - Allah Akbar - they take one of us - #Iranelection about 12 hours ago from web

in Baharestan we saw militia with axe choping ppl like meat - blood everywhere - like butcher - Allah Akbar - #Iranelection RT RT RT about 12 hours ago from web

reports of street fighting in Vanak Sq, Tajrish sq, Azadi Sq - now - #Iranelection - Sea of Green - Allah Akbar about 12 hours ago from web

rumour they are tracking high use of phone lines to find internet users - must move from here now - #Iranelection about 12 hours ago from web

phone line was cut and we lost internet - #Iranelection - getting more difficult to log into net - #Iranelection about 12 hours ago from web

link: persiankiwi (persiankiwi) on Twitter

Iran: Statistical Downfall?

Nate Silver writes:

I've generally tended to take the position that while the people running Iran are a bunch of reactionary thugs, they're at least a fairly intelligent bunch of reactionary thugs.

After this revelation on Iranian Press TV, however, I'm not so certain:

Iran's Guardian Council has admitted that the number of votes collected in 50 cities surpass the number of those eligible to cast ballot in those areas.

The council's Spokesman Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei, who was speaking on the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) Channel 2 on Sunday, made the remarks in response to complaints filed by Mohsen Rezaei -- a defeated candidate in the June 12 Presidential election.

"Statistics provided by Mohsen Rezaei in which he claims more than 100% of those eligible have cast their ballot in 170 cities are not accurate -- the incident has happened in only 50 cities," Kadkhodaei said.

The spokesman, however, said that although the vote tally affected by such an irregularity is over 3 million, "it has yet to be determined whether the amount is decisive in the election results," reported Khabaronline.

For all the complex series of statistics that have been run on Iran's election, it's the simplest that might prove to be the regime's downfall.

link: FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Worst. Damage Control. Ever.